Area Forecast Discussion

Expires:No;;684847
FXUS63 KMQT 210536
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
136 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2019

The large-scale pattern continues to be dominated by ridging over 
the Canadian Rockies and progressive NW upper-level flow over 
eastern Canada and the western Great Lakes. The short wave 
responsible for today's scattered rain/snow showers will drop 
southeastward across Lake Michigan tonight. In its wake, the surface 
flow turns northerly. With some CAA, temps on land will fall into 
the upper 20s to around 30. Combined with remnant moisture from 
today's precip and snowmelt, the onshore flow will support fog 
development tonight. Am a bit uncertain just how dense it will be 
given that meso models today overestimated PBL moisture. Still, have 
areas of fog overnight for much of the CWA and some widespread fog 
over the highest elevations. Given the temps, could also be some 
patchy freezing drizzle but don't think this will be too significant 
a concern.

By Thursday morning, subtle ridging builds in overhead, which should 
allow for a few hours of sunshine midday Thursday. Clouds fill back 
in quickly ahead of the next short wave which drops southward out of 
Ontario late Thursday. Modeled isentropic lift/overall forcing is 
less than with today's wave, and given the difficulty in realizing 
precip today, have capped POPs at low-end likely for one hour and 
chance otherwise. Should be warm enough for predominantly rain on 
land through the end of the short-term. Will also see breezy 
NW winds increasing Thursday afternoon, but mostly below 25 mph 
(30 mph near Lake Superior).

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 432 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2019

Models indicate that a mid/upper level ridge will persist over 
western Canada through much of the extended fcst period resulting in 
downstream nw flow through the Great Lakes. Although temps will 
remain mainly above normal, several clipper shortwave troughs will 
affect the area bringing light pcpn and colder air as they move 
through.

Thursday night and Friday, continued CAA with 850 mb temps dropping 
to around -14C will support additional light scattered north flow 
LES Thu night into Fri morning. Even with strong drying/subsidence 
and sunshine expected Fri afternoon, continued northerly flow off 
icy Lake Superior waters will keep max temps only in the lower to 
mid 30s, warmest south.  

Saturday, Dry weather will prevail as a sfc ridge builds into the 
region. Milder air will move in with low-level sw flow WAA pushing 
highs into the mid and upper 40s across much of the area, except 
closer to 40F far east, downstream of the colder waters of Lake MI. 
Abundant sunshine over the lower albedo forested areas could push
temps closer to the higher end of guidance. 

Sunday, Another clipper shortwave is expected in on Sun that could 
bring pcpn into the area as fgen associated with a sharp cold front 
moves through the region. Given model differences with the strength 
and timing of these features, continued low POPs are mentioned. Any 
pcpn amounts should remain light, with QPF of 0.10 or less.

Mon-Wed, below normal temps Monday in a northerly flow are expected 
to give way to moderation into the middle of the week as a more 
zonal flow pattern develops. Temps will climb from around 30 or mid 
30s Monday to the mid and upper 40s by Wed.
&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 136 AM EDT THU MAR 21 2019

Abundant low-level moisture associated with weak sfc low pres that 
dropped se across the area will result in continued LIFR conditions 
at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW for much of the night. Conditions may fall blo 
airfield landing mins at times. Winds will back from northerly to 
wsw this morning as next disturbance approaches from the nw. As this 
occurs, improvement will begin, with all terminals becoming VFR this 
morning. Winds will also become gusty this aftn, especially at KCMX 
where gusts to 30kt are expected. Behind a passing cold front, low 
VFR/high MVFR cigs should develop late aftn into the evening at all 
terminals, and isold/sct -shsnra should also develop during the 
evening.
&&

.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 312 PM EDT WED MAR 20 2019

Gusts 25 kts or less through Thursday morning. SW gusts briefly 
approach gale on the western arm of Lake Superior Thursday 
afternoon. 25 knot gusts expected over eastern Lake Superior late 
Thursday through late Friday. Winds calm below 25 knots across the 
lake Friday night and stay there through the middle of next week.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...Rolfson
MARINE...RJC