Expires:No;;420390 FXUS63 KMQT 172128 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 428 PM EST Sun Nov 17 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 427 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2019 Latest WV imagery and RAP analysis indicated an upstream mid/upper level trough from northwest Ontario into the Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, southerly winds prevailed ahead of the associated sfc trough through western Lake Superior into northwest Wisconson. The combination of weak isentropic lift and 700-300 qvector conv ahead of the mid level trough supported light snow/rain over mainly the east half of Upper Michigan. With the pcpn diminshing over the west, upstream obs indicated the potetnial of some light drizzle or freezing drizzle as moisture above -10C dwindles. Tonight, with abundant low level moisture over the region and weak qvector conv and low level conv near the trough, patchy dz/fzdz is expected to continue this evening over the west. The best chance for some icing will be in the higher terrain west where upslope westerly flow develops this evening. Over the east, the pcpn will also gradually diminish but may linger a bit longer where some lake enhancement is possible with southerly flow off of Lake Michigan. Temps should remain high enough for pcpn to remain as light rain or drizzle. Monday, some lingering light pcpn may linger over the east as the mid level trough will be slow to exit the region. With only a shallow moist layer, mainly just dz/fzdz is expected. Otherwise, look for seasonable November temps with highs in the mid to upper 30s under cloudy skies. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 338 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2019 Some light, scattered precipitation is possible Tuesday as a weakening shortwave traverses the region. Wednesday looks mostly dry but all eyes are on the potential for the first widespread system snow this winter as a low will eject out of the panhandles region and head northeast Wednesday evening. The sfc circulation will be strengthening Thursday as a mid-level, positively tilted trough digs out of the northern Plains. Models continue to come into better agreement on a track that favors significant synoptically driven precipitation across the Upper Peninsula, but there remain questions about the strength of the low and extent of the cold air and thus precipitation types. Better agreement exists in a brief period of NW wind lake effect snow following this system through much of Friday, shutting down Friday night. Then, another shortwave pushing southeast through Ontario may clip the region with more light snow chances late Saturday into Sunday, especially east. Monday night into Tuesday, as a weakening shortwave trough axis approaches from the WNW, some light mixed precipitation is likely for portions of the area. Best chances are over the far west with additional slight chances over the far east. A quick dusting of snow will very likely be followed by a brief period of drizzle/freezing drizzle as mid-levels dry out a little and scour out ice nuclei. Could be a couple hundredths of sfc ice accumulation, just enough to potentially cause some slick spots on roads and sidewalks for the Tuesday morning commute. Best chances for this will be in Gogebic and Ontonagon Counties. Wednesday brief ridging will poke into the region from the SE, but this will be short lived. NAM shows a much faster progression of an initial round of isentropic lift and associated precip that could affect the west half in the afternoon but chances are good that this will hold off until the evening or overnight. The main event for this week will be the deepening low pushing through IA into WI Wednesday night, with a precipitation shield filling in through the early AM hours of Thursday over the UP and then exiting in the afternoon. Model agreement in the track is much better than yesterday, but significant differences remain in the sensible weather. While the GFS/ECMWF would suggest low level temperatures supportive of mainly rain except across the far west, the GEFS ensembles are trending colder and generally produce more snow. In fact, at MQT the deterministic soln is at the very bottom of the 12Z GEFS snow envelope. The main exception is that east of US- 41 in all likelihood more rain will mix with the snow regardless. If snow were to be the more dominant precip type across central/western portions of the region, it would be of the heavy and wet variety. On the high end, 6-9" snowfall accumulations wouldn't be out of the question in some spots, but there remain several model solutions that keep the majority of the precip in liquid form and thus only produce a couple of inches of snow mainly west on the backside of the system as cooler air moves in. Hopefully things will become clearer as we add higher resolution models to the mix over the next 24-48 hours. Some NW wind LES is likely Thursday night and Friday as winds strengthen and 850 temps drop to somewhere in the -11C (ECMWF) to - 14C (CMC) range. But this will be cut off quickly on Friday afternoon over the west and evening east as mid-level shortwave ridging pushes the trough axis eastward and winds shift back to the SW. Could be some additional light snow returning as early as Saturday afternoon, mainly east, but marginally better chances will come overnight and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 1255 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2019 With abundant low level moisture over the region as a trough moves through, expect mainly IFR or low end MVFR conditions to prevail through tonight. Some freezing drizzle may also be possible at CMX where upslope westerly flow develops. Enough dry air moves in Monday morning for conditions to lift to MVFR. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 414 PM EST SUN NOV 17 2019 Lingering gusty winds of 20-30 knots over the far eastern lake will continue to diminish this evening. Winds will veer more west to northwesterly and decrease further into Monday, relaxing below 15 knots. Winds will remain relatively calm through Wednesday night as a trough hangs over the area followed by a brief ridge. Models then indicate a low pressure system will develop across the Central Plains and lift northeast toward Lake Huron Thursday evening and then into Quebec on Friday. This will bring the next chance at northwest winds approaching 30 knots, and possibly exceeding 30 knots over the eastern lake by Thursday evening. Winds will then gradually subside below 20 knots early Friday morning. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JLB LONG TERM...KCW AVIATION...JLB MARINE...KCW