Area Forecast Discussion

FXUS63 KMQT 250522

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
122 AM EDT Sat May 25 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 318 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019

Low pressure will eject out of the northern plains into Canada this 
evening with best forcing for shower activity splitting the U.P. 
passing to he northwest and southeast of the area. Clouds have hung 
tough today with the exception of the far eastern U.P. which has 
prevented any low level destabilization. A chance of showers will 
remain through the evening hours before mid level drying starts to 
move into the area from the west.

Saturday still looks like the warmest day of the year with a 
significant amount of sunshine and breezy southwest winds. 
Temperatures will climb into the 70s for most...possibly near 80 for 
the interior south central. Enough low level moisture may remain 
over the east for a shower or two to pop up during the afternoon but 
coverage should be limited.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 334 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019

Conditions will be quieting down across Upper Michigan on Saturday 
night after the passage of a cold front. Any remaining gustiness 
will subside through the late evening hours and any showers and 
storms over the eastern UP will have exited by 00Z Sunday. Despite 
the fropa, NW flow will be weak during the day Sunday and will 
quickly veer to the east. Temperatures will thus be relatively 
seasonal inland with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lakeshore 
locations, especially east, will remain in the 50s to lower 60s. 

Relatively weak surface high pressure will build into the region 
through Sunday but will be pushed out quickly Sunday night. A 
western CONUS mid/upper-level low will gradually translate eastward 
early next week, with a shortwave expected to cross the Upper Great 
Lakes Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. For now, it still 
appears that much of the Memorial Day Holiday will be dry with 
highs generally in the 60s, however by the mid to late afternoon 
rain showers are expected to begin moving in over the west and 
south. This round should exit to the east well before noon Tuesday. 

As upper level ridging begins to push into the western CONUS mid 
week, the main trough will begin to open up and increase in speed, 
although there are large differences in the placement and timing of 
the main area of energy as it crosses the region Wednesday into 
Wednesday night. The GFS/GEFS seem to overamplify the pattern at 
this time and are much more robust with precipitation. They suggest 
the possibility of multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms 
Tuesday night through Wednesday night. The CMC, in contrast, keeps 
much of the activity well to our south with just some brief 
scattered showers at best. Reality, in this case as in many, will 
probably fall somewhere in between and closer to the latest ECMWF 
which brings some modest showers and perhaps a thunderstorm mainly 
18Z Wed-06Z Thur. Stay tuned for details. 

As of right now, the expectation is for high pressure to build back 
in on Friday and help to dry conditions out, with some seasonally 
cool air expected to filter in.

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 118 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2019

Lingering MVFR ceilings at KIWD will improve to VFR early this morning. 
CMX has improved to VFR, and will maintain VFR conditions as 
drier air moves in from the west. SAW will have some low level 
wind shear through the early morning hours and will go from LIFR 
to VFR later this morning. All terminals will see gusty winds
develop this afternoon. 


.MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 318 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2019

Winds will generally be below 20 knots across Lake Superior through 
the weekend into early next week. A storm system moving into the 
Great Lakes will bring some gustier southwest followed by northwest 
winds on Wednesday into Thursday.

Upper Michigan...
Lake Superior...
Lake Michigan...