Expires:No;;265465 FXUS63 KMQT 201956 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 356 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 346 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show a split flow pattern over the western CONUS with a wnw confluent flow aloft into the Upper Great Lakes region and sfc high pressure dominating. Lake breezes have kept conditions cooler this afternoon near the Great Lakes shores (40s and lower 50s) while much farther inland under sunny skies and deeper mixing temps have risen in the upper 60s/lower 70s along the WI border. Winds will diminish to calm/near calm tonight, setting the stage for a chilly night as dry air mass (precipitable water as low as one- quarter to one-third inch) aids radiational cooling potential. Will continue to favored the lowest of available guidance, bias corrected mos guidance and bias corrected CMC global which is normally a superior performer on radiational cooling nights. Traditional interior cold spots should fall into the upper 20s/around 30F. Sfc high pressure will remain in control continuing the dry conditions on Monday. With the center of the high moving east southeast gradient winds will increase near 10 mph with gusts reaching over 15 mph at times over the west half of the fcst area. The winds combined with high temps reaching into the lower 70s and minimum RHs lowering into the 20 to 25 percent range will contribute to elevated fire weather concerns especially over the west half. Shortwave lifting ne from the Central Plains could bring some mid- high clouds into s central portions in the afternoon, although any showers associated with this system should remain south on Monday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 356 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 The main weather concern through the middle of the week will be elevated wildfire potential, especially inland from the Great Lakes where dewpoints in the afternoon hours will drop into the 20s. A thermal trough is expected to develop across the interior during the afternoon hours as temperatures heat up into the 70s and lower 80s across the interior and lake breezes dominate the low-level wind fields. The development of this thermal trough inland of the Great Lakes will be reinforced on Wednesday as a weakening, dry backdoor cold front drops south. Compressional along this trough axis should allow for another day with well-above normal temperatures on Wednesday. Thursday through early parts of the Memorial Day Weekend will become much more active weather wise with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. As result temperatures will be a bit more difficult to forecast based on how cloud cover and precipitation evolve. With the main shortwave associated with this pattern change lifting northeast from the southwest into the northern Plains, this track will favor good moisture transport this far north as the Gulf of Mexico is progged to be open for days in advance. As this axis of low to mid-level moisture gets into Upper Michigan on Thursday, we will start to see chance for showers and storms increase across the west half of Upper Michigan. With this convection well removed from the main upper-level forcing, thinking the primary area of concern will be along lake breeze boundaries and the far eastern edge of the warm front, associated with a developing surface low in the northern Plains. On Friday and Saturday, the surface low will track towards the Arrowhead of Minnesota and then drop south across Wisconsin. This should allow the warm front to gradually lift north across Upper Michigan and allow for better chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday in the vicinity of the frontal boundary, as well as lake breeze boundaries. On Saturday, as the low pressure system tracks just to our south, this will allow for additional chances for showers and thunderstorms. Towards the tail end of the weekend, as the surface low continues to track south of the area we should see a cool down, but lingering showers are not out of the question. Right now it is difficult to say whether or not we will see any strong to severe storms during this time period. However, with a weakening, yet still impressive elevated mixed layer progged to track across the region on Friday, this would favor a better environment for stronger updrafts. Based on the current instability axis and deep-layer shear profiles it appears that at least pesky pulse-type thunderstorms won't be out of the question. Overall, if you have outdoor activities planned towards the end of the work week and the Memorial Day Weekend you'll definitely want to keep an eye on the weather. Even if we don't see stronger storms, remember lightning is always a hazard with thunderstorms. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 122 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 With high pres and a very dry air mass dominating, VFR conditions will prevail at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW thru this fcst period. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 346 PM EDT SUN MAY 20 2018 Sfc high pres ridge over the Upper Lakes has led to winds under 15kt today across most of Lake Superior this afternoon. However, with the ridge axis setting up across southern Lake Superior, sw winds over the n central part of the lake could gust as high as 20kt late this afternoon. High pres will then remain over the Great Lakes region into Tue, resulting in winds mostly under 15kt. Although a cold front will drop s across Lake Superior Tue night/Wed morning, it will be weak, and winds will likely remain mostly under 15kt thru Wed and into Thu. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Voss LONG TERM...Ritzman AVIATION...Voss MARINE...Voss